Moonee Valley will conduct a nine race meeting on Saturday, where the feature race is the Group ll Australia Stakes (1200m). The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race 1. (12:35) Musk Creek Farm (Bm100) 2500m
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Back Me
7 Sous Les Nuages (Bet Now: $5.00) on top but not really a race I want to get involved in. Three weeks between runs since racing over 2400m at Sandown where he got a fair way out of his ground in a race dominated by those on speed and did a good job to find the line with purpose behind So Unusual. Can settle much closer in the run and gets C Williams aboard, which is a jockey upgrade IMO. Hard to beat I’d suggest.
Danger
2 Swords Drawn (Bet Now: $3.00) is fourth up from a break and should be ready to go re fitness. He ran two weeks ago at Flemington over 2000m where he was given a peach by Olly and was there to threaten and beat Spirit Ridge but that horse is a tough stayer and was just too tough and too good for them. Has run well at a staying trip before and is racing like he will appreciate it.
Long Shot
8 Eaton (Bet Now: $41.00) will jump on the bunny and run a positive race at a price. He ran over 3000m at Cranbourne last time out where he had the suck run behind the speed throughout and tried his guts out but just lacked the change up speed to go with them late when third to Monreal. Saves his best for the The Valley, should slide forward and give plenty of cheek.
Race 2. (13:10) Mcmahon’s Dairy (Bm70) 2040m
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Back Me
Fitter and up to 2040m are two big ticks for 11 Black Queen (Bet Now: $11.00). Chris Waller trained mare that resumed over the mile a few weeks back at Sandown and while she was back, never a winning factor, but was good late in the piece behind So You See in a strong return. She has got good upside compared to most, she’ll be strong late and can settle much closer in the run if need be.
Danger
Getting back up to 2040m can see 16 Freedom Escape (Bet Now: $16.00) run an improved race. Game second at this track/distance two back before going to 1800m at Sandown where they rode with a sit from the wide gate and he stuck to the task pretty well in defeat behind Marcolt. Off the run two back here, that would be good enough to give this a shake.
Long Shot
9 Austrata (Bet Now: $31.00) deserves another look. He ran at Sandown on Boxing Day and to the eye, the run had merit to it given the race shape and track pattern, but the fact he was found to be lame post race, tells me the run behind St Lawrence was a beauty. Hopefully the track will have a bit cushion in it and he does seem to be working up to a win. Could easily get it here.
Race 3. (13:45) Ascend Sales Trophies (Bm70) 1600m
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Back Me
7 Strawberry Moon (Bet Now: $8.00) is starting to put it together for Daniel Bowman, and is here to try and make it four wins on the bounce. The three wins have come at provincial level, with good placement, but credit to the mare, she has got the job done and each time she has been impressive, the latest over the mile at Stawell and it was the most impressive. Off that effort, confident she can measure up.
Danger
6 Dance On Tour (Bet Now: $4.20) is a Team Feek trained mare that is flying this time in. 12/10 from Olly got her the win two back at Sandown before racing there again a few weeks ago where she was a bit one paced when asked for the effort but was good to the line when second to dominant winner So You See. If she can translate that form to The Valley, she’ll be dangerous against these.
Long Shot
4 Ballynora (Bet Now: $7.00) has been up a little while but she is holding her form really well. Most of her recent racing has come at The Valley, bolting up two back before bumping into a progressive mare in Forbidden City, who gave them a start and a beating, but credit to Ballynora, she stuck to the task very well to finish second. If she can hold her form, she’ll take beating against these.
Race 4. (14:20) Happy B’day John Dickson-Bm78 1000m
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Back Me
7 Capital Theatre (Bet Now: $8.50) has done little wrong in a seven start career for Team Hawkes and does seem to excel at 1000m so he’s hard to beat here. He ran three weeks ago over 1000m at Sandown where he was chasing from the outset behind tearaway leader and eventual winner Bistro, but credit to him, he kept finding the line and was good in defeat to finish second. He’ll be strong late and hopefully doesn’t get too far back.
Danger
3 Bistro (Bet Now: $4.20) has sustained speed and that sort of racing pattern is suited to The Valley. She was a notable betting drifter a few weeks ago at Sandown but nobody told her that. She led throughout and spanked them in an impressive display, with a big key being she was able to relax early and not want to get it over and done with early on. Last bit will test, but she’ll look the winner for a long way.
Long Shot
5 Fission (Bet Now: $7.50) has been up a little while but tends to save his best for The Valley so he should be around the mark. He ran behind Bistro three weeks back at Sandown and did a good job given he was the one that had to drag the field up to the speed demon Bistro and actually did a good job to stick on like he did, finishing third. Leading contender given his liking for the track.
Race 5. (15:00) Chandler Macleod (Bm70) 1000m
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Back Me
7 Jean Valjean (Bet Now: $2.60) on top but it’s a tricky race so I am not entirely confident. Clarken/O’Shea trained gelding that has been kept on ice, having not raced since Boxing Day at Morphettville when looking a tired horse when third in a field of four behind Queman. Looked sharp in a trial win last week at Strathalbyn and Jamie Kah is lethal when combining with this camp.
Danger
9 Glenferrie Girl (Bet Now: $11.00) will jump on the bunny and prove hard to run down. She has been kept on ice, having not raced since December 16 over 955m here when taking a sit from the inside gate and got the gaps, driving late but had to settle for a narrow second to Moon And Back. Tends to race best when leading and rolling, so hopefully that can eventuate here.
Long Shot
Interesting doesn’t even come close to 2 Mamaragan (Bet Now: $4.80) and how he’ll go under the care of Nick Ryan. Very rare that a tried horse goes backwards with the stable and any hint of his best, he’d spank this lot. He’s had three jumpouts to get ready for the new camp and each time it’s been quiet. Especially with this stable, watch the market and see what it does with him.
Race 6. (15:40) Lawn Rules (Bm70) 1200m
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Back Me
6 Luna Cat (Bet Now: $3.80) looks to have returned really well for Team Hayes. This mare resumed amfew weeks ago at Sandown over 1000m where she got a fair way out of her ground from the wide gate but you had to like her finale, clocking some of the better late splits of the meeting behind No Way Ever. She has good upside to come and if she can settle closer in the run, she’ll take beating against these.
Danger
7 I’m Divine (Bet Now: $17.00) has been pretty good in a couple of runs for Matty Smith and looks hard to beat against this lot. Market wanted her fresh at Sandown but couldn’t quite dash when asked behind Boss Queen. She then went to Mornington where Thornton rode her more positively and the end result was a narrow but strong win. Has run well in town before and third up, she should be hard fit.
Long Shot
4 Defiant Diva (Bet Now: $19.00) is a Team Corstens trained mare that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since September 24 at Mornington over the mile where they rode her with intent but she was at the end of her prep and looked a tired horse, finishing down the track behind Mrs Sippy. 1200m is short of her best, but she is a mare who can sprint well fresh and will be strong at the end.
Race 7. (16:20) Australia Stks 1200m
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Back Me
3 Ironclad (Bet Now: $10.00) is a quality galloper for the Clarken/O’Shea camp that comes back home after a Spring/Summer prep in Melbourne/Perth where the clear highlight was a second in the Northerly behind star filly Amelia’s Jewel. Closed off well in a Strathalbyn trial and he is a horse who does appear to race very well with fresh legs, so keen to see how he goes.
Danger
7 Calypso Reign (Bet Now: $7.00) is a David Jolly trained sprinter that resumes after a strong Winter/Spring prep, where he graduated from benchmark company to end up being Stakes class, winning the Spring Stakes. Trucked in a Strathalbyn trial with plenty in hand and does fly fresh. He’s a yard/market watch because while he could be wound up for a Stakes win whereas others have bigger fish to fry.
Long Shot
4 Beau Rossa (Bet Now:
$SP.00) looks prepped up for a first up kill. He had a two run prep for their Carnival and ran well in the Winterbottom before looking a tired horse in the Gold Rush. Pushed out and responded nicely to win a trial at Strathalbyn so he looks ready to go for this, potentially with an eye towards Group l races, whether he rises in trip or remains at sprint trips for the Oakleigh Plate.
Race 8. (17:00) Entry Education (Bm70) 1200m
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Back Me
Tricky race but leaning the way of 11 Kaliuwaa Falls (Bet Now: $6.50), who is second up here for Mitch Freedman. He ran over 1100m at Sandown at the midweeks where he got a fair way back in the run but I thought he closed off his race with purpose late in the piece when close up behind Joltin Joe. Fitter and up to 1200m, can settle much closer in the run and be strong at the end.
Danger
10 Extreme Step (Bet Now: $7.50) can be an improver here. Both runs this time in have come at this track/distance, winning well fresh before seemingly having her chance four weeks ago behind Dazzling Lucy. She does seem to race best on the fresh side so the month between runs I do like and gets a perfect map with the gate.
Long Shot
9 The Last Napoleon (Bet Now: $23.00) loves racing at The Valley and comes here in winning form so I think he has to be respected. That win came over 1100m at Geelong, getting the splits at the right time and in a driving go, was able to finish best and win well. He’ll likely be giving these a start but should they overdo it in front, he’ll be one of the strongest at the end.
Race 9. (17:40) Ladbroke It (Bm78) 1500m
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Back Me
It’s hard to get away from how well 4 Worsfold (Bet Now: $2.80) is going since joining Nick Ryan. 2/2 for the new camp, both coming over 1400m at Sandown on the Hillside track. The win last time was outstanding given he ran a tick over 32 for the last 600m to run down So Risque and win. It was outstanding and hopefully there is petrol left in the tank. If that is the case, he likely wins again.
Danger
10 Netanyahu (Bet Now: $13.00) is a slight query at 1500m but is hard fit, in form and has the gate to do no work. Three weeks between runs since racing over 1300m at Sandown where he was given an absolute peach by Childs and in a driving go was able to finish best, beating a quality three year old in Merry Mac Boy. Should get run of the race from the gate and be around the mark.
Long Shot
11 High Approach (Bet Now: $23.00) is an interesting runner. Archie Alexander three year old that resumes, I dare say with eyes towards the Derby. He hasn’t raced since winning during Cup Week at Flemington when winning at Listed level over 1800m. 1500m fresh tells me this isn’t exactly a waste run, Melham sticks and is the one with enormous upside/progression.
BEST BET: Race Nine Number 4 Worsfold
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 6 Luna Cat
LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 11 Kaliuwaa Falls
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 3, 6, 7, 10
Leg Two: 3, 4, 5, 7
Leg Three: 1, 9, 10, 11, 12
Leg Four: 4
$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful
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