Nine races will be run and won at the Sunshine Coast on Saturday, headlined by the Sunshine Coast Cup (1400m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race 1. (13:03) Coastline Bmw X1 Hcp 1200m
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Back Me
2 Adelad (Bet Now: $4.50) rates as one of the leading contenders and a good lead is first up at 1200m. He ran in the first 2YO race of the season, the Pat O’Shea at Toowoomba, and he was very good late in the piece when second to Bedaub. Being by Adelaide, he will appreciate more ground, so 1200m I do like for him, trial was decent enough and I have no doubt he will be one of the strongest late, which should be enough to get him home.
Danger
3 Trifling (Bet Now: $4.20) is knocking on the door and I think last start could be a key. The three runs to start the prep, they rode her with intent, sitting forward. But last run, three weeks ago, they rode her with a sit and she found the line quite well over 1100m when second to Mishani Royale. Off that effort, 1200m should be fine and she has the hard race fitness/experience under the belt.
Long Shot
5 Cerared (Bet Now: $12.00) is a Red Dazzler filly for Team Sears that is on debut. She trialled a couple of weeks back at Toowoomba over 925m and although she ran third, she seemed to move very well and seemingly had a bit in hand to the eye. Gets the claim for Angela Jones, I think the stablemate is the better horse, but watch the market.
Race 2. (13:38) Coastline Bmw Xm (Bm85) 2400m
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Back Me
1 Greek Hero (Bet Now: $2.50) is yet to tick the 2400m box but his recent efforts suggest he’ll love the trip and he looks to have found a very winnable race. Lovely ride from Ash Morgan saw him win two back at Doomben before going to Rosehill two weeks ago where he got back to near last in the run and made up solid headway without threatening behind Irish Legend, who won again last Saturday, so the form reads well and getting up to 2400m, he’ll take beating.
Danger
4 Tappy’s Lad (Bet Now: $8.00) has to be given another chance. He is five weeks between runs since racing in the race won by Greek Hero where he was tailed off last but the vet found him to be lame post race so there was a clear excuse for the failure. Prior form was strong behind horses who would smash this field up so if you can forgive the last start, he’s right in the mix.
Long Shot
3 Hostage Of War (Bet Now: $6.50) is unknown at 2400m but he has the right racing pattern to give a sight. He ran last Saturday at Doomben where he gave a decent sight in front but just couldn’t quite sustain it and felt the pinch late behind Military Gambler. Hoping that they lead and control, rather than roll early. Get rolling 600m-700m out and try to break their hearts.
Race 3. (14:13) Coastline Bmw X5 (Rs0mw) 1600m
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Back Me
I’ll side with 3 Lucky Exchange (Bet Now: $8.00). Both runs this time in have come at the Gold Coast, winning impressively first up before racing three weeks ago when dragged back from the wide gate and was never a factor behind Spiritualised. Should lob into a lovely spot from the gate and hard fit, getting to the mile, he’ll do me in an even contest.
Danger
8 Finsceal (Bet Now: $5.00) has returned superbly for Chris Munce. Did more than enough fresh at Eagle Farm behind Olentia before going to 1400m here where he gave them a start and a beating, spanking his rivals and was very strong to the line, so the rise to the mile should be fine and provided he gets away cleanly, I think he’ll take beating against these.
Long Shot
5 Danezel (Bet Now: $12.00) is finding it hard to win but he’s a model of consistency. Ran over this track/distance just under three weeks back where I thought Harley gave him a peach and he was there to win but couldn’t quite finish it off when a narrow second to Rose Of Duporth. Not sure I could back him to win, but he’s an absolute must for exotics.
Race 4. (14:52) Coastline Bmw I4 Plate (C3) 1400m
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Back Me
15 Love Sensation (Bet Now: $2.90) looks to have a bit on these. Just looked in need of the run fresh at Eagle Farm behind progressive mare Chatty Lady. She then went to a Class 1 here where she looked an absolute moral on paper and despite a couple of nervous moments getting clear, once she did, away she went and she was dominant. She’s better than a Class 3 and with her confidence up, she can win again.
Danger
12 Atlantic Eagle (Bet Now: $3.00) has done little wrong in a five start career for Paul Duncan and commands respect. Has been kept on ice since a dominant first up win here on New Years Day, beating up an average lot but the way she put them away was impressive. Tick over trial last week was a good piece of work and she does seem best suited at 1400m-1600m, so rising to 1400m here, she is hard to beat.
Long Shot
5 Dixon Bay (Bet Now: $17.00) is a first four threat. Gillian Heinrich trained gelding that ran over this track/distance last time out where I thought he was given a 12/10 by Lewis and was there to win but couldn’t quite finish it off, eventually settling for a narrow second to Elected. I think the end of 1400m is the knock with him but a soft run in transit should hopefully offset that.
Race 5. (15:32) Coastline Bmw 2 Series (Bm72) 1000m
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Back Me
They tried to get 1 Steady Ready (Bet Now: $1.85) to run beyond 1000m but he is a short course specialist and all things being equal, he wins this. He ran in the King Of The Mountain at Toowoomba where he attempted to lead throughout and gave a very good kick but couldn’t quite see it through. That said, he was as brave as ever when third to stablemate Yellow Brick. That form reads very well for this, and back to 1000m, should be jump, run and win.
Danger
5 Mouette (Bet Now: $5.50) is a short course specialist for Danny Bougoure that resumes. She hasn’t raced since September 24 at Toowoomba when attempting to lead throughout and she did give a strong kick but she couldn’t quite see it through and was run down late by Muschialli. Couple of strong trial efforts to get ready for the return, she flies fresh and saves her best for the Sunny Coast.
Long Shot
Back to 1000m I love for 2 Hard To Say (Bet Now: $8.50) and he rates as one of the hardest to beat IMO. He ran behind Junqueira a few weeks back at the Gold Coast where he seemingly had his chance but battled on really well in defeat in a race which had good depth to it. This looks more within reach for him and hopefully with a more positive ride, he can bounce back.
Race 6. (16:12) Coastline Bmw 3 Series Hcp 1000m
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Back Me
All things being equal, 4 The Bopper (Bet Now: $1.70) should be winning this. His run three weeks ago at the Gold Coast was the run of the meeting by a mile. He was forced back to near last, spotting the leader 12+ lengths at one stage, and keeping in mind it was a 900m race, the fact he made up so much ground and got within a lip of beating Archer’s Paradox. Just has to run up to that here and he wins.
Danger
6 Mo’s Crown (Bet Now: $5.50) is a very interesting runner. Cody Morgan trains this gelding, who is first up, having not raced since the Ortensia during the Scone Carnival when leading and giving cheek but found the class a bit rich when down the track behind Vulpine. Stack of gears changes for the return and with his racing style, he will be in front of The Bopper and looking the winner for a fair way.
Long Shot
7 Superare (Bet Now: $23.00) has home track advantage and that should help his cause. He ran in the Archer’s Paradox race from three weeks back at the Gold Coast over 900m where he was chasing as soon as the gates opened and though safely held, he was far from disgraced, finishing third. Tends to race best on the home track and do like him back up to 1000m.
Race 7. (16:52) Coastline Bmw The New Ix1 Hcp 1600m
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Back Me
Tricky race with several key chances. 2 Affogato Girl (Bet Now: $4.80) is a progressive filly for Kacy Fogden that should prove hard to beat against this lot. Game second to Ekaterina two back at Eagle Farm before going to this track/distance around three weeks ago she loved the step up to the mile again and the end result was a dominant win. Been up a little while but seems to be getting better as the prep goes on and for mine, is the pony to bet on.
Danger
Giving respect to the in form Team Edmonds galloper 3 The Vowels (Bet Now: $5.50), who is looking to make it three on the bounce. 12/10 from Thompson saw him win here two back before going to the 1350m at Ipswich where I am not sure he was entirely happy around the tight track but class came to the fore and he was too good. I think he’ll eat up 1600m as well as getting back to the bigger track.
Long Shot
8 Porky (Bet Now: $6.50) is racing like 1600m will suit. Broke the maiden tag in style over 1400m at Eagle Farm two back when ridden cold before going to 1350m at Ipswich where they rode him with intent, settling on speed, and he showed good fight in the straight. Just couldn’t quite finish it off, run down late by The Vowels. I think with with a more patient steer, he’ll be better off and can win this.
Race 8. (17:32) Sunshine Coast Cup 1400m
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Back Me
The end of 1400m looks to be the query with 5 Roman Aureus (Bet Now: $5.50) but he has returned in super order. He has been kept on ice, having not raced since King Of The Mountain night at Toowoomba where he looked an absolute moral in the consolation and despite a betting drift, he had panels on them re class and was much too good. Trialled up well last week at Doomben and provided he gets a soft run in transit, 1400m will be fine.
Danger
1 Tumbler Ridge (Bet Now: $4.50) is a son of Spill The Beans for the O’Dea/Hoysted camp that resumes. He had a solid Winter/Spring prep, which ended with a couple of dominant wins and I love horses that go out on a high. Not normally a fresh horse but was given a good hitout to win a Doomben trial last week, suggesting that he’s got the fitness under the belt to go close here fresh. Watch the market.
Long Shot
4 Sea Raider (Bet Now: $67.00) is one for wider multiples. He ran in The Buffering four weeks back and couldn’t quite fire a shot from the wide gate, settling near last and failing to come on, finishing tailed off last behind Emerald Kingdom. I think he’s much better suited on the bigger track here and is fourth up here, so he should just about be ready to go.
Race 9. (18:12) Coastline Bmw Performance-Bm80 1200m
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Back Me
9 Fastconi (Bet Now: $2.15) looks to be another example of a Sydney Waller horse that comes to Brisbane and goes through the grades. Resumed at the midweeks at Doomben where the market wanted him with confidence and the bets were landed, giving them a spanking and clocking outstanding late splits, running fast overall time. You’d like to think there is upside/improvement to come and if indeed that is the case, he wins again.
Danger
5 Perseids (Bet Now: $6.00) has home track advantage and Nat McCall runners on the home track here are always hard to beat. He was 1200m back to 1000m last time out here where he looked a moral on paper and despite a few nervous moments, class came to the fore and he was too good, just. Hasn’t proven himself at 1200m but is racing like it will be ideal and he should be strong at the end.
Long Shot
Fitter and up to 1200m look to be two big ticks for 13 Kudu (Bet Now: $12.00). Market said he was ready to go when resuming at Ipswich but after getting a sweet sit behind the speed, I thought he was very weak late in the piece behind The Billionaire. Not a noted second up horse but the market push fresh was encouraging and I do think the bigger track and 1200m will help his cause.
BEST BET: Race Nine Number 9 Fastconi
NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 1 Steady Ready
LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 5 Roman Aureus
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 4, 6
Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 8
Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 5, 8
Leg Four: 9
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